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Afghan peace process: China in lead role

Pakistan Focus Analysis:

To end the Afghan impasse, America is encouraging Pakistan and China to support President Ghani’s reconciliation efforts.China-role-in-Afghanistan Now China is in the lead. China’s foreign minister last month said during a visit to Islamabad that Beijing was willing to help mediate talks to end the Afghan war. Under the envisaged arrangement, China is to act as a ‘guarantor’ for any peace deal between the insurgents and the Afghan government. This is a good approach because China, due to its credibility amongst all stake-holders is better placed to lead the process and act as guarantor for the implementation of the agreement. Days after information leaked about intra Afghan talks, senior representatives of the militant group visited Islamabad for secret discussions on the modalities. They left with a message from Pakistan: the Taliban must end a rift between top leaders, or talks might never get off the ground.

Both sides—Taliban and the Afghan government—are deeply suspicious of each other. Taliban representatives have indicated that, should talks begin, they would make demands including the immediate departure of all foreign troops. A senior aide to President Ashraf Ghani said anticipated Taliban demands, which may also include re-imposing the harsh interpretation of Islamic law would be unacceptable. The aide said Pakistani intermediaries were “working to find middle ground”, but so far reported no change in the Taliban stance. “If these demands are not softened,” the aide said, “the first day of talks could become the last day of talks.”

President Obama’s special envoy, Daniel F Feldman, has visited Islamabad and held important talks. He met Army Chief General Raheel Sharif as well. Regional situation was discussed during these meetings. Feldman appreciated Pakistan’s positive role for peace and stability in Afghanistan. Feldman’s visit was aimed at discussing the prospects of a peace deal in the backdrop of the latest initiatives. Afghan Taliban talks with the government in Kabul are likely to take place soon, though certain sticky issues are yet to be finalized; for example, Islamabad, Beijing, Kabul and Dubai have been shortlisted as possible venues; however, efforts are being made to arrange the talks in Kabul in an effort to show that the process is Afghan-led and Afghan-owned.

Reportedly, China has held rounds of talks with the Taliban and asked them to hold direct talks with the Afghan government. The Chinese have held “one, two or three” rounds of talks with the Taliban in the past few months, Dr Abdullah Abdullah said at a conference organized by an Indian media group. “They asked the Taliban to have talks directly with the Afghan government, that’s a good message,” Abdullah said, adding that he did not know what the outcome would be of China’s efforts. Abdullah, speaking at the India Today Conclave 2015 in New Delhi, did not say where the meetings took place. Abdullah’s backing of the nascent process is crucial because many of his supporters represent the anti-Taliban sentiment. Dr Abdullah has also asked India not to overreact about improvement in bilateral relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. These messages coming from Dr Abdullah are welcome signs, it is  indeed a paradigm shift in his approach towards  Afghan crisis in particular and regional dynamics in particular.

The two sides—Taliban and Afghan government— have been in informal contact with each other for some time, however, this is the first time that they plan to publically share a table to converse about future political landscape of AfghanistanBN-GH247_AFCHIN_J_20150106120344. Committees for the proposed talks on both the sides are engaged in affairs like discussing agendas for talks and other issues, however, as of now no direct meeting has taken place. Debate is going on the issue of presence of foreign forces in Afghanistan; spokesman of Afghan Taliban Zabihullah Mujahid has commented in a message that no doubt that Afghans want peace, but this is possible after the foreign forces stop aggression and allow sovereignty to Afghans. The Taliban leadership is not out-rightly rejecting the prospect of talks with the Afghan government.

President Obama held a video conference with President Ashraf Ghani, on March 13, and discussed the peace process and commended the regime’s efforts to improve relationship with Pakistan. Afghanistan’s Chief Executive Officer Dr Abdullah Abdullah also participated in the conference call. “The President commended President Ghani and Dr Abdullah on their leadership in promoting an Afghan peace process to end the conflict in Afghanistan and their initiative to improve Afghanistan-Pakistan relations,” the White House said. The Taliban side is also silent over the Afghan government’s willingness to give share to them in power and also accept their demands within constitutional framework. Taliban are accepting that their members visit certain countries for various issues and have traditional links with several countries. An Afghan government official has said that the issues about which Taliban have concerns could be discussed and sorted out once the talk process starts.

Repatriation of Afghan refugees is an important aspect of the final intra Afghan settlement. Pakistan is fully committed to the internationally endorsed Solutin Strategy for Afghan Refugees. During the London Conference on Afghanistan, in December 2014, Prime Minister Nawaz had called upon the international community to support Afghanistan to bring back Afghan refugees living abroad, by helping to create conducive conditions for their sustainable reintegration in their homeland. Now, things are moving in the right direction; Afghan Minister for Refugees and Repatriation, Sayed Balkhi, has said that an inter-ministerial Board has been constituted in Afghanistan for overseeing return of Afghan refugees which is being chaired by Presidential Ashraf Ghani.

With the change of leadership in Afghanistan, the two countries have commenced a historic new phase in bilateral relations. Now focus is on enhanced political engagement, security and counter-terrorism cooperation, trade and economic partnership, and regional cooperation. Terrorism is a common enemy of the two countries and it requires common endeavours to defeat it. Both the countries have paid a very heavy price at the hands of terrorism and now Pakistan has launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb which has broken the backbone of terrorist network in the country. Pakistan has a commitment, not to allow its territories to be used against other countries. Pakistan is in favour of an Afghan-owned and Afghan-led peace and reconciliation process.

Prime Minister’s Adviser on National Security and Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz has also confirmed that the Afghan government and the Taliban were preparing to hold negotiations. Pakistan has always supported such a process, and re-emphasized it to be transparent, Afghan-owned and Afghan-led. The process of intra-Afghan negotiations is likely to be painstakingly slow, progress could be akin to one step forward and two backwards. At this critical time, a caution is due for Pakistan that it should not get involved in the internal affairs of Afghanistan, even if officially invited by the Afghan government, it should only facilitate the process to the extent requested by Afghan government and Taliban. The interlocutors of Afghan peace and reconciliation process should look for strong guarantors to the anticipated agreement. No single country could bear such burden; however it would be appropriate if all permanent members of UNSC and all six immediate neighbours of Afghanistan jointly underwrite the forthcoming political arrangement in Afghanistan. Above all, America, the real power yielder in Afghanistan’ owes it to the Afghan people and the international community to make the process of intra-Afghan negotiations a success.

The next few days are very crucial. All sides are aware of the fact that the breakthrough has to be achieved before the Taliban’s spring offensive. All stakeholders are pushing for a formal ceasefire. The first round of talks will focus on striking a deal on a ceasefire. To cater for all possibilities about the outcome of talks, White House is likely to extend the stay of about 5500 troops, out of residual garrison of 9,800 combatants in Afghanistan, beyond 2015.

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Dynamics of FATF listing

Pakistan Focus Analysis. Indo-US anti-Pakistan nexus is so very obvious, both have in-chorus expressed their joy on Pakistan’s placement on grey list. Indian Express has reported that “India, US are one in saying Pakistan deserved to be demoted to anti-terror funding group's 'grey list’”. "India welcomes the decision of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to place Pakistan in its Compliance Document (grey list) for ICRG [International Cooperation review Group] monitoring," said India's ministry of external affairs. And; "outstanding counterterrorism deficiencies consistently raised by the Financial Action Task Force and [Pakistan] needs to take actions, including on the raising and moving of funds of UN-designated terrorist groups, a top US official said to news agency PTI”. Decision is politically motivated and is part of American strategy to pressurise Pakistan to settle some other scores. Pakistan has been placed among the jurisdictions (states) with strategic deficiencies: Ethiopia, Serbia, Sri Lanka, Syria, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia and Yemen. FATF has called upon these states to complete implementation of the action plans expeditiously and within the proposed timeframes, vowing to closely monitor the implementation. It was also agreed in February Plenary that an Action Plan would be negotiated between Pakistan and FATF members by June. This has been done. The FATF has formally placed Pakistan on the grey list due to ‘strategic deficiencies’ in its anti-money laundering and terrorism financing regime. The decision came despite Pakistan had demonstrated reasonable progress in three out of four major areas of FATF concerns. Pakistan’s team led by Finance Minister apprised the plenary about measures that Pakistan had taken to stop money laundering and strangling the terror financing. In prevailing World Order, nothing works better than American pressures. During February plenary, the US and the UK went out of their way to by-pass the standard FATF procedures and jointly arm twist the FATF for nominating Pakistan for the grey list in June, regardless of its February-June period effort and progress; they were also joined by France and Germany. Pakistan has undertaken to work towards effective implementation of the Action Plan, while staying in the grey list. A similar situation took place in 2011 when Pakistan was included in the grey list and was taken out in 2015 after it successfully implemented the Action Plan. There were tall claims that Pakistan was unlikely to be placed on the grey list of the global financial watchdog as the country had made enough progress to meet international anti-money laundering and terror financing standards, such euphoric environment had been created before and during the previous FATF plenary meeting as well. There is a need to float realistic expectations before such international events. FATF identifies jurisdictions with strategic AML/CFT deficiencies in its two public documents: FATF Public Statement (call for action)– commonly known as black list—and Improving Global AML/CFT Compliance— nick named as grey list. It is an on-going process; these lists are updated three times a year. Interestingly, FATF does not use grey list/blacklist terminologies. The ICRG of the APG had identified four key areas of concerns: deficiencies in the supervision of Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Counter Terrorism Financing regimes; cross-border illicit movement of currency by terrorist groups; progress on terrorism financing investigation and prosecution; and implementation of the United Nations Security Council resolutions 1267 and 1373, for curbing terror financing. ICRG report has shown that Pakistan did show progress on three out of four major areas of concerns. Cross-border smuggling of cash was the only major area where Pakistan admitted deficiencies. Maximum number of conditions – nine to be precise – take into account the concerns of the UNSC resolutions, followed by eight commitments to address concerns regarding terrorism financing prosecution, four are about curbing currency movement across the border and five recommendations relate to improvement in the supervision mechanisms of banks and companies. Pakistan has undertaken to demonstrate that authorities are identifying cash couriers and enforcing controls on illicit movement of currency and understanding the risk of cash couriers being used for terrorism financing. Remember Ayan Ali case? And who protected her? Carrier is enjoying quality life abroad. Pakistan has made a “high-level political commitment to work with the FATF and APG to strengthen its Anti-money Laundering (AML)/Countering Financing of Terrorism (CFT) regime and to address its strategic counter-terrorist financing-related deficiencies,” according to FATF announcement. The FATF said Pakistan will also be demonstrating that remedial actions and sanctions are applied in cases of AML/CFT violations, and that these actions have an effect on AML/CFT compliance by financial institutions. “It will be demonstrating that competent authorities are cooperating and taking action to identify and take enforcement action against illegal money or value transfer services.” During the intervening period Pakistan government did strenuous hard work to plug the gaps. Ambitious laws were enacted. Finance ministry improved institutional mechanisms for handling anti-money laundering and countering financing terrorism issues. Coordination between the State Bank, Banking institutions and law enforcement agencies had also been strengthened to curb money laundering and terror financing. Pakistan has recently addressed issues raised by the FATF through a tax amnesty scheme, while Securities and Exchange Commission has issued Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Regulations (2018). National Security Committee has also reaffirmed its commitment to cooperate with the FATF. Through its Action Plan, Pakistan has demonstrated to the world that it was ready to go an extra mile to curb money laundering. Pakistan will have to deliver on the first goal by January next year and complete all the 26 actions by September 2019,” it is indeed a tight schedule. One wonders whether Pakistan has requisite mechanisms in place to implement and steer such an ambitious plan. An expert assessment has it that though Pakistan’s inclusion in the grey list may hurt its image in the international landscape, its economic impact will not be as severe as being portrayed. This is because when Pakistan was part of the grey list/blacklist (2008-2015), it successfully approached multilateral bodies, floated international bonds and had international trades. Hopefully Pakistan will be able to come out or grey list in September 2019, however it must follow consistent economic policies to remain out of such trouble spots. Caretaker government would do a great service by forming a national commission to identify and punish all those responsible for letting the things reverse back after Pakistan’s previous journey to blacklist was over.

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