Home / Pakistan Focus Analysis / Axis of Fragility!

Axis of Fragility!

[Featured Picture: Courtesy Pakistan Today] Taliban attacked a guest house near the Spanish embassy in a heavily protected part of Kabul, close to several embassies and government buildings, on December 11, and took a large number of people as hostage. Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack, taunting Kabul of not being able to prevent an attack in the heart of capital. “The presence of our Mujahideen with weapons and a car loaded with explosives in such a high security area shows God’s support and the cooperation of the poor and Muslim people,” spokesman Zabihulla Mujahid said in a statement. Though, since July this year, Taliban leadership is caught-up in internal power struggles of its own, that has not hampered their capacity of conducting a string of successful attacks.

Fifth ministerial conference of the Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process (HOA) was an interesting event; it could be termed as a success. Process envisages an agenda for regional cooperation in the ‘Heart of Asia’ by placing Afghanistan at its centre and engaging its member states in sincere and result oriented cooperation for a peaceful and stable Afghanistan, alongside a secure and prosperous region. Also in the spotlight was Indian foreign minister Sushma Swaraj, who participated in important bilateral discussions in addition to the conference proceedings.

Joint inauguration of the Conference by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and President Ashraf Ghani as well as high-level participation of several important countries and international organizations, made the event focus of world attention. It also raised Pakistan’s profile as an important player and a factor of stability in international affairs.

While President Ghani was roaring in Islamabad, Taliban were calling the shots back home in Kandhar. They logged over fifty fatalities during a high profile attack on well-defended joint user airport. Afghanistan is in turmoil, the situation is rather complicated and good offices of every one and any one need to be mobilized if a lasting peace and development is to be achieved.

Prime Minister Nawaz assured that Pakistan considers Afghanistan as more than a neighbour and has always stood by the democratically elected legitimate government in Kabul and fully supports its sovereignty. And that massive movement of Afghan refugees across the common border constitute a security risk, and tangible steps would be required to stop it. Afghan government agreed to restart dialogue with ‘reconcilable’ Taliban with the help of Pakistan, the United States and China. The development came after a series of bilateral and trilateral meetings involving the four countries on the sidelines of the conference.
Afghan foreign minister Salahuddin Rabbani said: “At the trilateral and bilateral meetings, the main discussion item has been the peace process in Afghanistan”. The US deputy secretary of state Antony Blinken said: “The governments of Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and US held a series of meetings to reaffirm our collective commitment to enabling an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned process of reconciliation and cessation of violence.” Initial agreement between the US and Pakistan on expediting the resumption of Afghan peace talks was forged during General Raheel Sharif’s visit to the US in November.

Afghan President and Army Chief discussed the roadmap and it was agreed to put in place specific measures to deny terrorists’ access to financial and material resources, dismantle their sanctuaries and curtail their ability to recruit and train new terrorists. During the meeting two sides discussed “meaningful steps” that could bring enduring peace and ensure that the gains made in this regard are irreversible. The Murree process shall resume from where it broke off in July. Mr Blinken said that all stakeholders were determined to move forward and “get the right people around the table”.

Prime Minister Nawaz described the enemies of Afghanistan as enemies of Pakistan, adding that: “We are convinced that terrorism and extremism is the common enemy of all. In our view, the finalization of border management SOPs at the earliest will be helpful in containing the movement of terrorists across borders,” he said. President Ghani lauded Pakistan’s decision to launch military operations against militants and also spoke about the ‘unintended consequences’ of these operations. “Unfortunately, recent events in Pakistan have forced us to host close to 350,000 to 500,000 Pakistani refugees on our soil… Until now, we have launched 40 operations against them through our forces.”

The outcome of the conference was the unanimously adopted “Islamabad Declaration,” reaffirming commitment of the Heart of Asia countries for long-term peace and stability in Afghanistan. Towards this end, the declaration stipulated measures for deepening cooperation and collaboration in political, security, economic development and regional connectivity areas, within the HOA region. Recognizing that emerging security challenges have the potential of expanding to the entire region, if timely measures are not taken, the conference agreed on the need to evolve a collective approach to deal with such challenges. It also agreed to continue cooperation in the following Confidence Building Measures (CBMs): disaster management; counter-terrorism; counter-narcotics; trade, commercial and investment opportunities; regional infrastructure; and education.

Heart of Asia Ministerial meeting also provided an opportunity to hold important bilateral meetings. The most important subject in these sideline meetings was to explore ways and means of improving Afghanistan-Pakistan relations and facilitating the resumption of stalled Afghan reconciliation process. Key elements of this consensus were: peace in Afghanistan is vital for the peace in the region and beyond; closer collaboration and coordination between Pakistan and Afghanistan is essential for promoting peace in Afghanistan and for effectively combating terrorism; and reconciliation through a politically negotiated settlement is the only viable option for promoting long-term peace in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s role and commitment for facilitating peace talks was recognized.

Pakistan and India have agreed to restart the dialogue process, Sushma Swaraj disclosed at a joint press conference with Sartaj Aziz: “Instead of composite dialogues now comprehensive dialogues will be held in which all outstanding issues will be discussed”. All eight sectors of the composite dialogue would be part of the comprehensive bilateral dialogue and more things could be added to it. Comprehensive dialogue will include discussions on peace and security, Jammu and Kashmir, Siachen, Sir Creek, confidence building measures, the Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project, economic and commercial cooperation, counterterrorism, narcotics control and humanitarian issues. It will also address people to people exchanges and religious tourism. Shushma confirmed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Pakistan next year for the SAARC summit expected to be held in coming September.

Shushma set out India’s desire for a new trade corridor to be opened into Central Asia through Afghanistan. Indian agreement of a new dialogue with Pakistan reflected an acceptance that Indian ambition of regional trade will never be realized without its better relationship with Pakistan. The new engagement between the two countries has raised hopes of a broader reconciliation.

Pakistan’s troubled neighbourhood—both in the east and west present a treacherous playground in terms of diplomacy and peace process. Fist immediate causality was resignation of pro-India head of Afghanistan’s Directorate of National Security— Rahmatullah Nabi— who does not want his country to engage with Pakistan for joint and cooperative effort for solving the problems these two countries face, despite the fact that none of the countries could resolve these issues without the help of other. Likewise, Modi has a compulsion to please his hardline power base—terrorist outfit Shiv Sena—through Pakistan bashing. His anti-Pakistan rhetoric of electoral campaign has turned out as a bone in the throat which is neither easy to swallow nor viable to vomit. Pakistan is poised to tread a difficult path with both these neighbours.

Though substantial gains were made during the event— both in Pakistan-Afghanistan and Pakistan-India context, track record indicates these are not without the likelihood of their quick meltdown on slightest pretext.

About admin

Check Also

Afghan peace process back to Doha

Marathon talks between US Special Envoy Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban, in Doha, are concentrating on two questions: continuation of American military bases in Afghanistan, and Taliban guarantees of not letting Afghanistan’s territory be used as launching pad against any third country. Taliban are also ready to undertake that they would not support Al-Qaida and Daesh. Mullah Berader is now leading Taliban’s team. Both sides have acknowledged progress on vital points. For the first time Afghan peace process may be moving in the right direction. During the fifth trip of US Special Envoy Ambassador Zalmay to Pakistan, both sided reiterated their shared intent of an Afghan led and Afghan owned political settlement of Afghan conflict. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said the dispute highlights a split that has emerged among countries with an interest in the region, with Pakistan and the US pushing Taliban to open talks with Kabul and other countries, including Iran, supporting the Taliban’s stance; “Iran and Qatar are supporting Taliban’s way but Pakistan is saying what the Afghan government and the US wanted”.Pakistan is not averse to the US’ demands but wants a ‘regional consensus’ on it since permanent presence of the US military in Afghanistan would certainly raise eyebrows in Russia, Iran and even China. These countries fear that the US may use the Afghan soil to advance its own strategic designs in the region. For this reason, Pakistan is striving to evolve a regional consensus on the possible Afghan peace deal. Guarantees and assurances aimed at promoting peace and security of both Afghanistan and other countries are understandable. However, demand for permanent military presence is indicative of the desire not only to keep Afghans subjugated but also to brow-beat other regional countries.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *