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Afghanistan’s erratic trajectory

Afghan government is pressurizing Pakistan through the US, it has persuaded America to suspend the next tranche of Coalition Support Fund(CSF) to Pakistan for not doing enough against Haqqani network. Though formal announcement is likely to take sometime, reportedly the decision has informally been conveyed to Pakistan’s embassy in Washington. This would cause a loss of US$ 1.5 billion; the amount has already been budgeted in the current year’s budget. CSF is a reimbursement of amount already spent by Pakistan for providing services in connection with American counter terrorism effort. It is unbecoming of an ally to withhold such payments. This would be a setback for Pakistan and Afghanistan would stand absolved of what all it has uttered in the recent past.

In another erratic move, Afghan government has walked away from the second round of the peace talks with mediation of any second country, and has asked Pakistan to take action against Taliban leadership in its territory instead of bringing them to the negotiation table. The former president, Hamid Karzai, who recently opposed Ghani’s soft stance toward Pakistan has supported the new change in the strategy of Afghan government. However, taking a pragmatic position, the US States has reiterated that bilateral talks and cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan is the only way for stability and security in the region. US State department had praised Afghanistan-Pakistan talks following the deadly attacks in Afghanistan Kabul. John Kerby, spokesman of US State department had said, “Bilateral talks between Afghan-Pakistan governments are commendable”. John Kerby further added that America is committed to cooperate and help Afghan forces and will not abandon Afghanistan in any way.
Taliban insurgents have killed scores of people in suicide and other bombings in Afghanistan during the past few days. The violence has picked up since the disclosure of the death of Mullah Omar, and is likely to continue till amicable resolution of leadership related irritants, which is indeed a tall order. Spike in deadly attacks across Afghanistan underscores the capacity and capability of insurgent elements, hence the need for peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. A recent UN report indicates that civilian casualties in Afghanistan since January 2015 have reached record levels.
On August 07, the insurgents launched a flurry of attacks in Kabul; a truck bomb in residential blocks; a suicide bombing at the national police academy; and a ground assault on a coalition base. Taliban spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahid, claimed responsibility for the bombing. He said the bomber had “targeted occupying foreigner forces” and that all of those killed were foreigners.
Reacting to the spike of violence, in an abrupt shift from his fence-mending outreach with Pakistan, a visibly angry Afghan President Ashraf Ghani lashed out at Pakistani leaders. He said on August 10, that the Afghan people are in urgent need of long-lasting peace in their country and closure of terrorist sanctuaries in neighbouring Pakistan. “The doors of government are open for peace, peace with those who are Afghans and believe in humanity and renounce terrorism”. Taking the cues, CEO Dr Abdullah Abdullah has also started firing anti-Pakistan salvos; much of the difficulties in Pak-Afghan relationship owe their initiation to Dr Abdullah’s erratic foreign policy initiatives during the Karzai era.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif during his visit to Afghanistan months ago had categorically stated that “the enemy of Afghanistan is the enemy of Pakistan, “Ghani told the press conference, adding that it is the time to act upon word…We hoped for peace but we are receiving messages of war from Pakistan…In my telephone call with Pakistan prime minister (on August 09), I told Pakistan to see terrorism in Afghanistan the same way it sees terrorism in Pakistan,” he said. President said, “We know exactly who wants to hinder peace in Afghanistan and why”….”Pakistan still remains as venue and ground for gatherings from which mercenaries send us message of war”.
Since coming to power Ghani has courted Pakistan, expending substantial domestic political capital in the process, his comments on August 10 are the strongest yet against Pakistan. “Since I took office, Afghans have been waiting for Pakistan to show their tangible commitment” to peace, Ghani said. “But attacks in the past two months and now in Kabul have shown us that it is still the same as the past.”
Response by Pakistan’s foreign office was measured: “Having been the biggest victim of terrorism itself with human losses exceeding 60,000, the people and the government of Pakistan can feel the pain an “In the past 10 months we have showed a strong will on peace and discussed with Pakistan that both sides should fight terror,” “The reality is that Pakistan is busy holding gatherings to discuss its undeclared war in Afghanistan.” anguish of the people and the government of Afghanistan over the recent wave of terrorist attacks, which have resulted in the loss of many valuable lives and injuries to scores of people.”
Pakistan’s National Security Adviser, Sartaj Aziz, dismissed Ashraf Ghani’s charges, saying there are “all kinds of (militant) factions” operating in Afghanistan, making it difficult to ascertain who is behind the bloodshed. “We very much condemn all the terrorist attacks in Kabul and other parts of Afghanistan and we have constantly worked with the Afghan government to try to restrict movements across the borders so that no terrorist goes from here to commit any act there,” Aziz said. Pakistan can persuade the Taliban to re-engage in talks with the Afghan government only after the group resolves its leadership problem. Pakistan has been urging the Taliban to talk rather than fight because ultimately fighting is not a solution, “Aziz added.
Taliban have ceded phenomenal space and have come to negotiating table. Ashraf Ghani should reciprocate and start sharing political power with then, a fairly elaborate framework in this regard was agreed upon during Karzai era. Political incentives would broaden the constituency of moderate factions of Taliban, and they will be able to attract extremist splinters to join the dialogue process. President Ashraf Ghani should do a background homework and hint about his political intent at the earliest. Moreover, as long as Afghan leadership continues to mix-up militancy based political struggle—insurgency— with terrorism, no durable head-way is likely to come-by.
The silver-lining is that after the outburst by the Afghan President, a delegation led by Afghan foreign minister has visited Pakistan to discuss the contentious issues, especially the ‘non-paper’ earlier communicated by the Afghan side, demanding of Pakistan to take action against Afghan Taliban on its soil. During Afghan foreign minister’s visit, Afghan side conveyed its concerns over the spate of recent attacks in Kabul and sought cooperation. Pakistan pledged full cooperation against terrorism and emphasised that the two countries should have trust in each other and “discourage spoilers and detractors”. Premier Nawaz assured the Afghan delegation of all-out support but also suggested that implicating Pakistan’s security institutions in the attacks was regrettable. PM’s adviser informed the delegation that the Pakistani government had serious concerns about Afghan soil being used against Pakistan. “But we believe in using appropriate channels to convey our concerns instead of going public with allegations,” Aziz said. However, the delegation did not report back to its boss positively.
President Ashraf Ghani’s frustration is understandable, but his approach to resolve the issues is unfortunately getting more and more erratic. More than a decade long Pakistan bashing neither helped Americans nor Ashraf’s predecessor; it is not likely to help him either. Americans have corrected their course, and it would serve Ashraf well, if he follows the suite. Afghan conflict needs a professional handling. President Ashraf Ghani should have done his calculations before signing the Bilateral Security Agreement with America that a very powerful component of Taliban is not likely to compromise on presence of foreign troops on American soil. Despite stern tone in his comments on Pakistan, Ghani failed to come up with something concrete to achieve the desires objectives.
Afghan leadership should comprehend that it is an exercise in futility to assume that Pakistan has compelling influence on Taliban. Bad experience of cobbling together a broad based Mujahedeen government in the wake of Soviet withdrawal from Kabul in the 1990s is not a distant memory; and ever since, Afghan insurgent leadership’s psyche has not changed much.

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Era of false flag operations

Era of false flag operations

We are living in an interesting era of false flag operations, especially in military and media domains. India’s high drama about Uri attack is fizzling away; and fabricated coverage of the incident by Indian media stands exposed. In the post Uri setting, de-escalation may just be around the corner. The two countries are now talking to each other rather than talking at each other. While Pakistan’s national leadership was striving to put-up a unified stance to handle the situation arising out of India’s false flag attack on its own military base, an out of the blue, exclusive news story by Cyril Almeida published by a leading Pakistani newspaper on 6 Oct 2016, captioned: “Act against militants or face international isolation, civilians tell military” came down upon national canvas like a thunderbolt. It raised many eyebrows. Story even if correct was ill-timed to embarrass military leadership. It was also a sure recipe for lowering the morale of nation in general and combatant troops deployed at the Line of Control (LoC) in particular. No wonders, it was lifted, out of proportion by the Indian media.Now, back to Pakistan-India canvas. There is a broad based consensus amongst the strategic community of Pakistan that people of India and Pakistan will have to wait for improvement in bilateral relations till BJP throws-up a sensible Prime Minister. Now this has been acknowledged by Pakistan at official level as well. Advisor to Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz has stated that “there is no hope of improvement in relations between Pakistan and India during the premiership of Modi”. Sartaj Aziz also hoped that if the independence movement in occupied Kashmir continues and international pressure continues then India would become ready to resolve the Kashmir dispute. He said India cannot succeed to divert the world attention from the Kashmir issue through the Uri-like self-staged incidents. In the regional context, soon after the end of Modi’s brief honeymoon with SAARC leaders, it became clear that Modi is for a solo journey and his vision for SAARC is focused on using this platform for furthering Indian strategic objectives at the cost of other members. And if SAARC didn’t fit into this role, it had no place in Modi’s regional calculus. India likes to have all SAARC summits in New Delhi, and whenever these are planned elsewhere, it first tries to disrupt the event, and when there is no plausible reason to do so, it attends with a pinch of salt. Hopefully, SAARC summit shall also take place soon in Islamabad. There is need to put behind the strategy of false flag operations, at all levels, in all domains, these tactical fixes often create strategic dilemmas which are difficult to address.

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