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Peace in Afghanistan: a distinct possibility

One could now hope that Afghan peace process has gathered requisite critical mass and it would now continue moving forward. Long wait for the honest broker is over, China has filled the void. The other important factor is Pakistan’s distancing away from the current Spring Offensive by the Afghan insurgents, led by the Taliban. The only spoiler left in the field is India, and in all probability it won’t be able to cause anything more than pinpricks.
When Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif visited Kabul on May 12, he informed the Afghan leaders about the warning conveyed to the insurgents in Afghanistan. At a news briefing in Kabul, the Prime Minister strongly condemned the hype in Taliban violence and the group’s spring offensive. “Continuation of such offensive and attacks will be construed as terrorist acts and we condemn such attacks in the strongest terms,” Nawaz declared. This was a rare public condemnation of insurgents’ activities in the strongest terms.
Afghan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) has said that the warning issued to the Taliban by Pakistan to end its spring offensive is part of Islamabad’s commitment to support Kabul in the war against terror and in the embryonic peace process. The ministry’s spokesman, Ahmad Shekib Mustaghn, in his weekly media briefing said that Pakistani officials during their trips to Afghanistan have assured that Islamabad supports the peace process of Afghanistan and is ready to cooperate.
Both countries understand that without combating the terrorism jointly it is impossible to defeat it in both countries, as they share a lengthy and porous border. In words of President Ghani, “We are seeking a long-seated peace; peace between Afghanistan and Pakistan and peace among the government and armed opponents. There is an unexpected hostility between us, an issue which our friends in Pakistan have also accepted, but in reaching to a prosperous future, we need new efforts and joint cooperation, because militancy threats Afghanistan, Pakistan and the whole region.” he added. He went on to say that “In order to reach to our future goals, we have to overcome the past. But going forward requires a movement and joint cooperation against the threats.”
There are reports of fierce fighting in different parts of Afghanistan, insurgents have intensified their attacks in the urban centres as well. This year’s spring offensive is considered as a test season of the capabilities of Afghan National Security Forces and the National Unity Government. With the escalation of violence, hopes for resumption of peace talks with the Taliban have been declining and many Afghans were turning skeptical about Pakistan’s pledges for helping peace efforts.
To carry the process further, Adviser on Foreign Affairs met with Salahuddin Rabbani, Afghan foreign minister on 28th May, on the sidelines of the 42nd OIC Council of Ministers’ meeting in Kuwait. The two Ministers reviewed the implementation of the understandings reached during the recent visit to Kabul by the Prime Minister of Pakistan for intensifying bilateral cooperation between the two countries in diverse fields. Civil and military leaderships of Pakistan and Afghanistan have expressed their desire for their quest for permanent peace not only in Afghanistan but also in the region.
Recently, an intelligence sharing MoU was signed between the ISI of Pakistan and the NDS of Afghanistan, which outlined the terms of collaboration between the NDA and ISI counter-terrorism and counterinsurgency efforts in their respective territories. The signing of the agreement marks revival of trust between Islamabad and Kabul, particularly between their security and intelligence establishments. This positive development has raised the alarm in New Delhi and their political assets in Afghanistan are trying their best to sabotage the current initiative.
There is split opinion in Afghanistan on this intelligence sharing agreement between the two countries. The head of the NDS, Rahmatullah Nabil, who had refused to sign the MoU, his predecessor, Amrullah Saleh, sitting parliamentarians and former president Hamid Karzai have joined the chorus against what they likened to a treasonous act. Their reaction has exposed their deep-rooted dislike, if not hatred, for Pakistan. Even Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval jumped the fray to run down the ISI-NDS agreement. Ajit Doval has said that MoU is based on faulty assumptions. “What Pakistan wanted was to get an assurance and put pressure on Afghanistan so that they will not allow their territory to be used for any security-related work by India. That is the crux of it. This is based on a faulty assumption that India probably uses Afghan soil or Afghan nationals for its security purposes”. However, Afghan Ministry of Interior has welcomed Islamabad’s warning to the Taliban and said that such moves can boost morale of Afghan security forces in fight against militants. A member of the internal security and defense affairs committee of the Wolesi Jirga (lower house of parliament), Khalid Pashtoon, told Azadi Radio that war is still going on in every hook and cranny of the country. “If Pakistan is willing to sincerely cooperate with Afghanistan in fight against terror, then it should show it in action.”
While addressing the first senior officials’ meeting of the Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process, recently held in Islamabad, Adviser on National Security and Foreign Affairs, Sartaj Aziz declared that enemies of Afghanistan are enemies of Pakistan. “Afghanistan holds immense significance for us, not only because we share a common border or ethnic affinity, but also because together we can usher in a new era of regional connectivity and regional cooperation in line with the vision of transformation decade enunciated by President Ashraf Ghani,” Aziz said. The adviser assured Pakistan’s firm commitment towards ensuring that Afghanistan’s transformation phase becomes a harbinger of regional growth and prosperity, and expressed hope that with a combination of dedication and resourcefulness, the Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process would be driven along a productive path. During the meeting, there was convergence of views that peace, security and stability are essential for socio-economic development and prosperity in Afghanistan and the region.
Also, there have been contacts between the Taliban and Afghan government in China. On May 20, Secretary of the High Peace Council led a three member delegation to China to meet three Taliban representatives; though both the national unity government and the Taliban have denied the news of this meeting. Taliban team comprised Mullah Abdul Razaq Akhond, who represented the Quetta Shura; former deputy minister of foreign affairs under the Taliban regime, Mullah Jalil; and; a former governor of Kandahar during Taliban rule.
New Afghan government has been steadily trying to engage with Pakistan seeking the country’s role for ending the long-lasting conflict in the country. Afghan peace process seems to have taken a right direction. However, it would need continuous nurturing and protective care. Time has come for the Taliban to go beyond their prohibitive preconditions for talks, and think of adding these preconditions to the list of end objectives of intra-Afghan peace process. Leaderships of Afghanistan and Pakistan have demonstrated that both countries are poised to work in unison to formulate a strategy for bringing peace to both the countries. As a first step, the two countries have decided to effectively counter the propaganda against their countries aimed at stalling the recent intelligence-sharing agreement and sabotaging the evolving harmonious relations.

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Era of false flag operations

Era of false flag operations

We are living in an interesting era of false flag operations, especially in military and media domains. India’s high drama about Uri attack is fizzling away; and fabricated coverage of the incident by Indian media stands exposed. In the post Uri setting, de-escalation may just be around the corner. The two countries are now talking to each other rather than talking at each other. While Pakistan’s national leadership was striving to put-up a unified stance to handle the situation arising out of India’s false flag attack on its own military base, an out of the blue, exclusive news story by Cyril Almeida published by a leading Pakistani newspaper on 6 Oct 2016, captioned: “Act against militants or face international isolation, civilians tell military” came down upon national canvas like a thunderbolt. It raised many eyebrows. Story even if correct was ill-timed to embarrass military leadership. It was also a sure recipe for lowering the morale of nation in general and combatant troops deployed at the Line of Control (LoC) in particular. No wonders, it was lifted, out of proportion by the Indian media.Now, back to Pakistan-India canvas. There is a broad based consensus amongst the strategic community of Pakistan that people of India and Pakistan will have to wait for improvement in bilateral relations till BJP throws-up a sensible Prime Minister. Now this has been acknowledged by Pakistan at official level as well. Advisor to Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz has stated that “there is no hope of improvement in relations between Pakistan and India during the premiership of Modi”. Sartaj Aziz also hoped that if the independence movement in occupied Kashmir continues and international pressure continues then India would become ready to resolve the Kashmir dispute. He said India cannot succeed to divert the world attention from the Kashmir issue through the Uri-like self-staged incidents. In the regional context, soon after the end of Modi’s brief honeymoon with SAARC leaders, it became clear that Modi is for a solo journey and his vision for SAARC is focused on using this platform for furthering Indian strategic objectives at the cost of other members. And if SAARC didn’t fit into this role, it had no place in Modi’s regional calculus. India likes to have all SAARC summits in New Delhi, and whenever these are planned elsewhere, it first tries to disrupt the event, and when there is no plausible reason to do so, it attends with a pinch of salt. Hopefully, SAARC summit shall also take place soon in Islamabad. There is need to put behind the strategy of false flag operations, at all levels, in all domains, these tactical fixes often create strategic dilemmas which are difficult to address.

One comment

  1. That’s a sharp way of thnniikg about it.

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