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SCO evolving and growing

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is an emerging and evolving organization trying to formulate an Asia vision and Asia voice. This objective is indeed a tall order given the fierce opposition by the US led Western bloc. While the US wishes a unipolar World under its tutelage, it promotes multi-polar Asia with 4-5 power centres working at cross purposes. Currently it is busy in putting together a 9-10 Asian countries’ alliance against China under the banner of “Pivot Asia”.

Under these circumstances, the SCO leadership has taken a wise decision to expand its membership. 2015 summit announced the acceptance of Pakistan and India as members; Belarus would obtain observer status, joining Afghanistan, Iran and Mongolia, while Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia and Nepal would be welcomed as “dialogue partners.” The SCO leaders have expressed hope that Iran also would soon become a member, but said Tehran first needed to reach an international agreement on curbing its nuclear programme.

Pakistan’s full membership was approved by SCO’s Council of Heads of State on July 10. Pakistan will now have to fulfil certain statutory and legal requirements before the country formally becomes a full member. Pakistan has for long been trying to become an SCO member state. It believes its membership will enable it to diversify its foreign policy and enable it to play a more effective role in the stability of the region.

With the development of Gwadar Port, Pakistan can become an energy and trade corridor for SCO countries. Chinese assistance in developing connectivity infrastructure in Pakistan, developing Gwadar Port and Kashgar as special economic zone, upgrading KKH and linking Gwadar with Kashgar and Central Asia via KKH are in step with SCO‘s efforts to create trans-continental overland connectivity.

Since its inception in 2001, the SCO has become a regional force and has been gaining importance in Asian dynamics. SCO is a permanent inter-governmental organization. Its main objectives are: strengthening mutual trust and good-neighbourliness among member countries; promoting effective cooperation in political, trade, economic, scientific, technological and cultural fields, as well as in education, energy, transport, tourism, environmental protection, joint promotion and maintenance of peace, security, and stability in the region; striving towards establishment of a democratic, just and rational new international political and economic order etc.

Over the years, the SCO has played a positive role in reducing tensions, settling border disputes, maintaining stability and developing cooperation between member states. Within the SCO framework, and as a result of the joint efforts of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, a 3000 km border dispute along the Sino-former Soviet border has been resolved. It is rare that border disputes that have caused turbulence for several centuries are settled in a surprisingly short span of a few years.

SCO’s policies and programmes are in consonance with Pakistan‘s long term objectives of promoting peace and stability in the region, containing and eradicating the menace of terrorism from the region and working with the members to build stronger and more productive relationship in the future.

Chinese vice FM Cheng Guoping said that India and Pakistan’s joining the SCO will play an important role in the SCO’s development. It will have a constructive role in pushing for the improvement of bilateral relations. Moreover, current situation of the withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan has added a new dimension to Pakistan-Central Asia ties, particularly in the context of difficult India-Pakistan relations. Cheng said: “As the influence of the SCO’s development has expanded, more and more countries in the region have brought up [request for] joining the SCO…India and Pakistan’s admission to the SCO will play an important role in the SCO’s development. It will play a constructive role in pushing for the improvement of their bilateral relations.”

China is playing an active role in bringing stability to Afghanistan. Alongside the US, China participated in the first ever declared direct contact between the Taliban and Afghan government, held in Murree, Pakistan. Chinese interest in Afghanistan also stems from an urge for stability of Western China, especially the Xinjiang region, which is intricately linked to the security and stability in Afghanistan. Now, increasing number of political observers are looking towards SCO for its role in Afghanistan.

Two of its founding members — Russia and China — are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. Now, with addition of Pakistan and India, SCO has four nuclear weapon capable states of Asia as its members. The forum is not an alliance directed against any other state or region. Over the last decade, its activities have expanded to include military cooperation, intelligence sharing, aimed at joint counterterrorism exercises. In recent years, the organisation has also been attending to economic issues, in particular concerning energy security which is a matter of great importance not only for its members but for the whole region. With remaining observer and dialogue nations gaining full member status in due course, the SCO might well evolve into an even more important player in world politics and go beyond its regional reach.

However, there are reservations as well. “Not sure whether the SCO will become clumsier or less efficient (after the two countries India and Pakistan join). The guiding principles of SCO say, it will be built on consensus. Like ASEAN+. If the differences between India and Pakistan are brought to the forum….see what happened to SAARC,” Hu Shisheng, director at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations and South Asia expert told Hindustan Times. “They cannot bring bilateral differences (to SCO). Otherwise, the group will become dysfunctional. The focus should [be on] adding value to the forum. Not the other way around. That is the genuine hope of the old members,” Hu added. Pakistan considers SCO as the most significant organisation in Eurasia that has the potential of bringing stability to South Asia sub-region as well.

In Western countries SCO, is sometimes called ―Eastern NATO. This is not correct. In fact, it is far from the truth. While SCO countries have some military cooperation and a few joint military exercises have also been conducted, SCO has no standing army, it is certainly not like NATO, or even like the erstwhile ―Warsaw Pact.

It is interesting that the Shanghai Five mechanism was started with the purpose of reducing border tensions by cutting down troops, for which they had signed “Treaty on Deepening Military Trust in Border Regions”. It started as an organisation to meet security concerns, border tensions, border disputes, cross border smuggling, terrorism, extremism, separatism etc. Gradually it moved towards political issues, economic and cultural cooperation. Most other regional organisations including EEC, ASEAN, SAARC, ECO, started with the agenda of economic cooperation and some of these have gradually moved to political and security cooperation.

With its expansion programme, SCO is set to become an Asia focused organization with global outreach. SCO has sufficient space to consolidate its performance in the areas of non-traditional security concerns facing the Asia continent. Climate change adaptation, disaster management, drug trafficking and disease mitigation are some of the areas where SCO has unchallenged turf. In the long term it could go on to set up an Asian parliament and a conflict resolution mechanism. Pakistan has indeed eased the moment by becoming a member of SCO.

SCO is slowly and steadily building a harmonious region in keeping with the Shanghai Spirit that promotes mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, consultation, respect for diverse civilizations and pursuit of common development. After the current tranche of expansion, this organisation is poised to play a constructive role in Asia with a global outreach.

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Era of false flag operations

Era of false flag operations

We are living in an interesting era of false flag operations, especially in military and media domains. India’s high drama about Uri attack is fizzling away; and fabricated coverage of the incident by Indian media stands exposed. In the post Uri setting, de-escalation may just be around the corner. The two countries are now talking to each other rather than talking at each other. While Pakistan’s national leadership was striving to put-up a unified stance to handle the situation arising out of India’s false flag attack on its own military base, an out of the blue, exclusive news story by Cyril Almeida published by a leading Pakistani newspaper on 6 Oct 2016, captioned: “Act against militants or face international isolation, civilians tell military” came down upon national canvas like a thunderbolt. It raised many eyebrows. Story even if correct was ill-timed to embarrass military leadership. It was also a sure recipe for lowering the morale of nation in general and combatant troops deployed at the Line of Control (LoC) in particular. No wonders, it was lifted, out of proportion by the Indian media.Now, back to Pakistan-India canvas. There is a broad based consensus amongst the strategic community of Pakistan that people of India and Pakistan will have to wait for improvement in bilateral relations till BJP throws-up a sensible Prime Minister. Now this has been acknowledged by Pakistan at official level as well. Advisor to Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz has stated that “there is no hope of improvement in relations between Pakistan and India during the premiership of Modi”. Sartaj Aziz also hoped that if the independence movement in occupied Kashmir continues and international pressure continues then India would become ready to resolve the Kashmir dispute. He said India cannot succeed to divert the world attention from the Kashmir issue through the Uri-like self-staged incidents. In the regional context, soon after the end of Modi’s brief honeymoon with SAARC leaders, it became clear that Modi is for a solo journey and his vision for SAARC is focused on using this platform for furthering Indian strategic objectives at the cost of other members. And if SAARC didn’t fit into this role, it had no place in Modi’s regional calculus. India likes to have all SAARC summits in New Delhi, and whenever these are planned elsewhere, it first tries to disrupt the event, and when there is no plausible reason to do so, it attends with a pinch of salt. Hopefully, SAARC summit shall also take place soon in Islamabad. There is need to put behind the strategy of false flag operations, at all levels, in all domains, these tactical fixes often create strategic dilemmas which are difficult to address.

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  1. A growing chorus of states, from the United States to China, appears to be shifting away from Islamabad.

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